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COVID 19 GLOBAL


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@coxyhog Just watched the London news about what Watford FC are doing for NHS workers. 

Brilliant stuff, turned the Executive boxes and elsewhere in the ground to bed space for NHS staff working at Watford General Hospital nearby, who either are too worried to currently go back home to their families incase they unwittingly pass on the virus to them, or so they don't have to travel so cutting down the risk again of contracting it etc. 

Watford haven't furloughed any staff, so they're in making and feeding the NHS staff as well. 

Well done, gonna try and get a ticket and go to a game when this is all over :default_goodjob:

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34 minutes ago, monkeyman said:

They say a virus does the most damage when the host defences overreact and start to damage the host itself.

How right they were.

I have not heard that directly from the experts. But I did see something similar last night on the news. The bad part is that there is sooo much that is not known yet. 

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20 hours ago, Thai Spice said:

Read again. 

Sure every country is counting (since decades) the number of people they burry .

Births and deaths. 

I dont care WHAT they died from. 

We're looking for variations.  

 

So like code, you believe they're over-reporting Covid deaths that are not really Covid deaths. Please explain your rationale.

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5 minutes ago, Kathmandu said:

So like code, you believe they're over-reporting Covid deaths that are not really Covid deaths. Please explain your rationale.

Numbers, numbers and a bit of math..... like I the stats I posted earlier.

Plus very nebulous counting methods. 

https://www.thejakartapost.com/amp/news/2020/04/28/covid-19-the-difficult-process-of-counting-the-dead.html

An exemple amongst many :

"In Belgium, where care homes have officially accounted for more than half the deaths, the figures include even people who have not been tested, but are suspected of having been infected"

Each country has different counting rules, hence the so called comparatif stats between countries are meaningless.

Again, only the overall death variation compared to previous years is a reliable indicator.

Numbers and math must guide, not emotions and sensationalisme...

 

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8 minutes ago, Thai Spice said:

Numbers, numbers and a bit of math..... like I the stats I posted earlier.

Plus very nebulous counting methods. 

https://www.thejakartapost.com/amp/news/2020/04/28/covid-19-the-difficult-process-of-counting-the-dead.html

An exemple amongst many :

"In Belgium, where care homes have officially accounted for more than half the deaths, the figures include even people who have not been tested, but are suspected of having been infected"

Each country has different counting rules, hence the so called comparatif stats between countries are meaningless.

Again, only the overall death variation compared to previous years is a reliable indicator.

Numbers and math must guide, not emotions and sensationalisme...

 

I would imagine that traffic deaths and murders are down since the lock down. But w/o a lock down traffic deaths and murders would then rise to their normal levels, plus the extra deaths due to Covid and even more  Covid deaths because we never locked down. No thanks, not for me amigo.

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16 minutes ago, Kathmandu said:

I would imagine that traffic deaths and murders are down since the lock down. But w/o a lock down traffic deaths and murders would then rise to their normal levels, plus the extra deaths due to Covid and even more  Covid deaths because we never locked down. No thanks, not for me amigo.

Completely wrong.

Traffic deaths in France between 5 and 10 per day. Ok discount that.

Crime deaths ? Well this ain't the US .... Under 1 / day. Ok, disregard that.

BTW, did you even ever DO the numbers, the stats, or do you simply believe TV, FOX and The Sun, The Mirror ?

Instead of wasting time posting shite, sit down with paper, pen and calculator. Do some research . do some spreadsheets, 

 

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3 hours ago, Thai Spice said:

Completely wrong.

Traffic deaths in France between 5 and 10 per day. Ok discount that.

Crime deaths ? Well this ain't the US .... Under 1 / day. Ok, disregard that.

BTW, did you even ever DO the numbers, the stats, or do you simply believe TV, FOX and The Sun, The Mirror ?

Instead of wasting time posting shite, sit down with paper, pen and calculator. Do some research . do some spreadsheets, 

 

It would be close but I imagine that you have less friends remaining than Ben.

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It's been called a war. Let's compare.

On the 29th April, 1975, the US recorded the last combat deaths of the Vietnam war bringing the total deaths to 58,320 (number of names on the Vietnam memorial, 58,220 DCAS).

On the 29th April, 2020, the Covid-19 death count in the US is 59,266 (Worldometer) or 58,356 (Johns Hopkins). Both in excess of the number of deaths in Vietnam.

The "bloodiest day" of the Vietnam war occured on the 31st January, 1968, with 246 deaths.

The highest daily number of deaths from Covid-19 in the US (so far) is 2,683.

Daily deaths from Covid-19 surpassed 246 on the 24th March, 2020. Is hasn't fallen below 246 since.

It took 5,775 days from the 8th July, 1959, until the 29th April, 1975, for the Vietnam death toll to reach 58,320.

It took 82 days from the 6th February, 2020, to the 28th April, 2020, for the Covid-19 death toll to reach 59,266.

In 1975 millions protested to end the war and bring the troops home.

In 2020 thousands protested to shut away the old people, which probably includes most Vietnam veterans, and open the bowling alleys, beauty salons and tattoo parlours.

 

 

 

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On 3/31/2020 at 10:19 AM, fygjam said:

 

Remember, it's not the virus that kills you. It's your body's reaction to the virus, your immune system, that can overreact, that causes excessive inflammation and it's the excessive inflammation that kills you.

Accumulating evidence suggests that a subgroup of patients with severe COVID-19 might have a cytokine storm syndrome. We recommend identification and treatment of hyperinflammation using existing, approved therapies with proven safety profiles to address the immediate need to reduce the rising mortality.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30628-0/fulltext

 

 

6 hours ago, monkeyman said:

They say a virus does the most damage when the host defences overreact and start to damage the host itself.

How right they were.

 

5 hours ago, thumper63 said:

I have not heard that directly from the experts. But I did see something similar last night on the news. The bad part is that there is sooo much that is not known yet. 

 

Just remember, you could have read it here first.

Now go back and watch the excellent TWIV videos I posted where the first bit of the videos is taken up with comments from a front line doctor working in New York.

But in summary.

It's the second week (from the onset of symptoms) when the shit hits the fan.

Most people with a functioning immune system (i.e. not compromised by HIV or anti rejection drugs) clear the virus within the first week. It's when the body goes about clearing up the damage that an excessive inflammatory response occurs causing the pneumonia.

However, there is a second problem.

The virus enters cells via the ACE2 receptors and the epithelial cells of the airways are rich with these receptors.

But blood vessels are also lined with ACE2 receptors and if the virus gets into the blood it attacks these cells as well. And inflammation in blood vessels causes blood clots. In one of those videos referred to above, the front line doctor tells of removing blood clots the size of hot dogs from patients.

And these clotting problems affect not only hit those with comorbidity issues.  They affect the fit and healthy 30yo who barely noticed the infection. But his death goes down to stroke or heart attack because that's what he died from, not Covid-19.

 

If you are unfortunate enough to contract the virus, watch out for the second week. Get you doctor to send you for a D-dimer blood test and platelet count which can detect clotting problems.

 

 

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Vice President Mike Pence, centre without a mask, meets staff and a COVID-19 patient at the famous Mayo Clinic on Tuesday Picture: Jim Mone

“Mike Pence says he didn’t wear a mask during his visit to the Mayo Clinic because he wanted to be able to look healthcare workers in the eye and thank them. How does he normally wear his mask? Like a blindfold?”

 

 

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On 4/29/2020 at 11:32 AM, fygjam said:

Vice President Mike Pence, centre without a mask, meets staff and a COVID-19 patient at the famous Mayo Clinic on Tuesday Picture: Jim Mone

“Mike Pence says he didn’t wear a mask during his visit to the Mayo Clinic because he wanted to be able to look healthcare workers in the eye and thank them. How does he normally wear his mask? Like a blindfold?”

 

 

.... 

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12 minutes ago, fforest said:

He and Trump dont wear masks because they they know the only thing dangerous about Corona is taking all the nonsense in the news seriously.... 

Pence is the 48th VP after being the 50th governor of Indiana If you add 48 and 50 together you get 98. If you then subtract 32 ('cause it's 1 less than 33) you get 66. How's that for spooky eh?

 

 

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10 hours ago, Krapow said:

UK Government under loads of pressure about the deaths in care homes, still rising, and they're gonna have to start counting them now as well. 

Death figures likely to go a fair bit again from tomorrow. 

Am I missing something here, how many make it out of care homes🙄

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10 hours ago, thumper63 said:

I have not heard that directly from the experts. But I did see something similar last night on the news. The bad part is that there is sooo much that is not known yet. 

its called a cytokine storm and comes into effect usually around 6-10 days after onset of symptoms...it is currently unknown how much mortality is associated with it but 50% is a good bet 

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11 hours ago, thumper63 said:

The bad part is that there is sooo much that is not known yet. 

I agree with this 100%

No one really knows what this virus is all about. It will take years to fully understand just what this virus is all about.

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Another mainstream press analysis of the number of excess deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Evil

coronasmaller.jpg

Financial Times.JPG

Global coronavirus death toll could be 60% higher than reported
Mortality statistics show 122,000 deaths in excess of normal levels across 14 countries analysed by the FT

The death toll from coronavirus may be almost 60 per cent higher than reported in official counts, according to an FT analysis of overall fatalities during the pandemic in 14 countries.

Mortality statistics show 122,000 deaths in excess of normal levels across these locations, considerably higher than the 77,000 official Covid-19 deaths reported for the same places and time periods.

If the same level of under-reporting observed in these countries was happening worldwide, the global Covid-19 death toll would rise from the current official total of 201,000 to as high as 318,000.

To calculate excess deaths, the FT has compared deaths from all causes in the weeks of a location’s outbreak in March and April 2020 to the average for the same period between 2015 and 2019. The total of 122,000 amounts to a 50 per cent rise in overall mortality relative to the historical average for the locations studied.

In all the countries analysed except Denmark, excess deaths far outnumbered the official coronavirus death tolls. The accuracy of official death statistics from the virus is limited by how effectively a country is testing people to confirm cases. Some countries, including China, have retrospectively revised up their death tolls from the disease. 
 

View image on Twitter

 

According to the FT analysis, overall deaths rose 60 per cent in Belgium, 51 per cent in Spain, 42 per cent in the Netherlands and 34 per cent in France during the pandemic compared with the same period in previous years.

Some of these deaths may be the result of causes other than Covid-19, as people avoid hospitals for other ailments. But excess mortality has risen most steeply in places suffering the worst Covid-19 outbreaks, suggesting most of these deaths are directly related to the virus rather than simply side-effects of lockdowns.

David Spiegelhalter, professor of the public understanding of risk at Cambridge university, said the daily counts in the UK, for instance, were “far too low” because they only accounted for hospital deaths.

“The only unbiased comparison you can make between different countries is by looking at all cause mortality . . . There are so many questions about the rise we’ve seen in death that have not got Covid on the death certificate, yet you feel are inevitably linked in some way to this epidemic.”

The extra deaths are most pronounced in urban areas with the worst virus outbreaks, and have completely overwhelmed reporting mechanisms in some. This is especially worrying for many emerging economies, where total excess mortality is orders of magnitude higher than official coronavirus fatalities.

In Ecuador’s Guayas province, just 245 official Covid-related deaths were reported between March 1 and April 15, but data on total deaths show that about 10,200 more people died during this period than in a typical year — an increase of 350 per cent.

View image on Twitter

In the northern Italian region of Lombardy, the heart of Europe’s worst outbreak, there are more than 13,000 excess deaths in the official statistics for the nearly 1,700 municipalities for which data is available. This is an uptick of 155 per cent on the historical average and far higher than the 4,348 reported Covid deaths in the region.

The region surrounding the Italian city of Bergamo registered the worst increase internationally with a 464 per cent rise in deaths above normal levels, followed by New York City with a 200 per cent increase, and Madrid, Spain, with a 161 per cent increase.

In the Indonesian capital Jakarta, data on burials shows an increase of 1,400 relative to the historical average during the same period — 15 times the official figure of 90 Covid deaths for the same period.

The challenge is not confined to the developing world. In England and Wales, the number of fatalities in the week ending April 10 was the highest this century. The figure was 76 per cent higher than the average for the same week in the past five years, and the number of excess deaths was 58 per cent higher than the total number of reported Covid-deaths for the same period.

“If we want to . . . [understand] the ways different countries have responded to the surging pandemic and how [it] has affected the health of the population, the best way is to count excess deaths,” said David Leon, professor of epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

Paris.JPG

Experts have warned of serious under-reporting of Covid-19 cases in residential facilities for the elderly, who are particularly vulnerable to the virus. “Very few countries appear to be testing people in care homes, staff and residents, systematically,” said Adelina Comas-Herrera, research fellow at the Care Policy and Evaluation Centre of the London School of Economics.

Even the much higher numbers of deaths in the pandemic suggested by excess mortality statistics are likely to be conservative, as lockdowns mean that “mortality from numerous conditions such as traffic accidents and occupational injuries possibly went down”, said Markéta Pechholdová, assistant professor of demography at the University of Economics, Prague.

Clarification: A chart in this article was amended to indicate that the mortality data used for Italy is for an incomplete set of that country's municipalities. Complete national mortality data for Italy have not yet been released.

(READ MORE)

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12 hours ago, Krapow said:

@coxyhog Just watched the London news about what Watford FC are doing for NHS workers. 

Brilliant stuff, turned the Executive boxes and elsewhere in the ground to bed space for NHS staff working at Watford General Hospital nearby, who either are too worried to currently go back home to their families incase they unwittingly pass on the virus to them, or so they don't have to travel so cutting down the risk again of contracting it etc. 

Watford haven't furloughed any staff, so they're in making and feeding the NHS staff as well. 

Well done, gonna try and get a ticket and go to a game when this is all over :default_goodjob:

If you do let me know & we can meet for a beer after.

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Several articles of interest from WebMD.JPG.29b93c1a4875bfab8d82f4e4cbc1888e.JPG  (link to source):

WEBMD HEALTH NEWS
The Great Invader: How COVID Attacks Every Organ
By Neha Pathak, MD

April 23, 2020 -- We have underestimated and misunderstood COVID-19 since it first appeared.

And as we learn more, it’s clear that COVID-19 can be more than just a respiratory disease. It’s joined the ranks of other “great imitators” -- diseases that can look like almost any condition.
It can be a gastrointestinal disease causing only diarrhea and abdominal pain. It can cause symptoms that may be confused with a cold or the flu. It can cause pinkeye, a runny nose, loss of taste and smell, muscle aches, fatigue, diarrhea, loss of appetite, nausea and vomiting, whole-body rashes, and areas of swelling and redness in just a few spots.

In a more severe disease, doctors have also reported people having heart rhythm problems, heart failure, kidney damage, confusion, headaches, seizures, Guillain-Barre syndrome, and fainting spells, along with new sugar control problems.
 

CDC Adds Six Symptoms to COVID-19 List

April 27, 11:05 a.m. -- The CDC has added several new symptoms to its list for the coronavirus: chills, muscle pain, headache, sore throat, repeated shaking with chills, and a loss of taste or smell.

The six new symptoms join the existing list: fever, coughing, and shortness of breath or difficulty breathing.

The expanded list could help those who are trying to identify whether they have symptoms related to COVID-19. With a limited number of test kits available, those who want to take a test typically must show symptoms first.

Large Study of COVID-19 NYC Hospital Cases Shows High Mortality

APRIL 24, 2020 -- A study of 5700 patients hospitalized with confirmed COVID-19 in New York revealed a 21% mortality rate among the 2634 patients whose outcomes were known at study end, according to a report published April 22 in JAMA.

The study, which represents the largest cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in the United States thus far, confirmed that the highest-risk groups are older, male, and those with preexisting hypertension, diabetes, or obesity.

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36 minutes ago, Evil Penevil said:

Another mainstream press analysis of the number of excess deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Evil

coronasmaller.jpg

Financial Times.JPG

Global coronavirus death toll could be 60% higher than reported
Mortality statistics show 122,000 deaths in excess of normal levels across 14 countries analysed by the FT

The death toll from coronavirus may be almost 60 per cent higher than reported in official counts, according to an FT analysis of overall fatalities during the pandemic in 14 countries.

Mortality statistics show 122,000 deaths in excess of normal levels across these locations, considerably higher than the 77,000 official Covid-19 deaths reported for the same places and time periods.

If the same level of under-reporting observed in these countries was happening worldwide, the global Covid-19 death toll would rise from the current official total of 201,000 to as high as 318,000.

To calculate excess deaths, the FT has compared deaths from all causes in the weeks of a location’s outbreak in March and April 2020 to the average for the same period between 2015 and 2019. The total of 122,000 amounts to a 50 per cent rise in overall mortality relative to the historical average for the locations studied.

In all the countries analysed except Denmark, excess deaths far outnumbered the official coronavirus death tolls. The accuracy of official death statistics from the virus is limited by how effectively a country is testing people to confirm cases. Some countries, including China, have retrospectively revised up their death tolls from the disease. 
 

View image on Twitter

 

According to the FT analysis, overall deaths rose 60 per cent in Belgium, 51 per cent in Spain, 42 per cent in the Netherlands and 34 per cent in France during the pandemic compared with the same period in previous years.

Some of these deaths may be the result of causes other than Covid-19, as people avoid hospitals for other ailments. But excess mortality has risen most steeply in places suffering the worst Covid-19 outbreaks, suggesting most of these deaths are directly related to the virus rather than simply side-effects of lockdowns.

David Spiegelhalter, professor of the public understanding of risk at Cambridge university, said the daily counts in the UK, for instance, were “far too low” because they only accounted for hospital deaths.

“The only unbiased comparison you can make between different countries is by looking at all cause mortality . . . There are so many questions about the rise we’ve seen in death that have not got Covid on the death certificate, yet you feel are inevitably linked in some way to this epidemic.”

The extra deaths are most pronounced in urban areas with the worst virus outbreaks, and have completely overwhelmed reporting mechanisms in some. This is especially worrying for many emerging economies, where total excess mortality is orders of magnitude higher than official coronavirus fatalities.

In Ecuador’s Guayas province, just 245 official Covid-related deaths were reported between March 1 and April 15, but data on total deaths show that about 10,200 more people died during this period than in a typical year — an increase of 350 per cent.

View image on Twitter

In the northern Italian region of Lombardy, the heart of Europe’s worst outbreak, there are more than 13,000 excess deaths in the official statistics for the nearly 1,700 municipalities for which data is available. This is an uptick of 155 per cent on the historical average and far higher than the 4,348 reported Covid deaths in the region.

The region surrounding the Italian city of Bergamo registered the worst increase internationally with a 464 per cent rise in deaths above normal levels, followed by New York City with a 200 per cent increase, and Madrid, Spain, with a 161 per cent increase.

In the Indonesian capital Jakarta, data on burials shows an increase of 1,400 relative to the historical average during the same period — 15 times the official figure of 90 Covid deaths for the same period.

The challenge is not confined to the developing world. In England and Wales, the number of fatalities in the week ending April 10 was the highest this century. The figure was 76 per cent higher than the average for the same week in the past five years, and the number of excess deaths was 58 per cent higher than the total number of reported Covid-deaths for the same period.

“If we want to . . . [understand] the ways different countries have responded to the surging pandemic and how [it] has affected the health of the population, the best way is to count excess deaths,” said David Leon, professor of epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

Paris.JPG

Experts have warned of serious under-reporting of Covid-19 cases in residential facilities for the elderly, who are particularly vulnerable to the virus. “Very few countries appear to be testing people in care homes, staff and residents, systematically,” said Adelina Comas-Herrera, research fellow at the Care Policy and Evaluation Centre of the London School of Economics.

Even the much higher numbers of deaths in the pandemic suggested by excess mortality statistics are likely to be conservative, as lockdowns mean that “mortality from numerous conditions such as traffic accidents and occupational injuries possibly went down”, said Markéta Pechholdová, assistant professor of demography at the University of Economics, Prague.

Clarification: A chart in this article was amended to indicate that the mortality data used for Italy is for an incomplete set of that country's municipalities. Complete national mortality data for Italy have not yet been released.

(READ MORE)

Completely lays  waste to the idea that this just an aggravated influenza

The only thing that comes close,adjusted for population  was the HK FLU IN 1970  in the UK....but this  outbreak now is far from over yet and will eclipse it by a fair distance

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