COVID 19 GLOBAL

[Smiler]

1 hour ago, Evil Penevil said:

Another mainstream press analysis of the number of excess deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Evil

Global coronavirus death toll could be 60% higher than reported
Mortality statistics show 122,000 deaths in excess of normal levels across 14 countries analysed by the FT

The death toll from coronavirus may be almost 60 per cent higher than reported in official counts, according to an FT analysis of overall fatalities during the pandemic in 14 countries.

Mortality statistics show 122,000 deaths in excess of normal levels across these locations, considerably higher than the 77,000 official Covid-19 deaths reported for the same places and time periods.

If the same level of under-reporting observed in these countries was happening worldwide, the global Covid-19 death toll would rise from the current official total of 201,000 to as high as 318,000.

To calculate excess deaths, the FT has compared deaths from all causes in the weeks of a location’s outbreak in March and April 2020 to the average for the same period between 2015 and 2019. The total of 122,000 amounts to a 50 per cent rise in overall mortality relative to the historical average for the locations studied.

In all the countries analysed except Denmark, excess deaths far outnumbered the official coronavirus death tolls. The accuracy of official death statistics from the virus is limited by how effectively a country is testing people to confirm cases. Some countries, including China, have retrospectively revised up their death tolls from the disease. 
 

 

According to the FT analysis, overall deaths rose 60 per cent in Belgium, 51 per cent in Spain, 42 per cent in the Netherlands and 34 per cent in France during the pandemic compared with the same period in previous years.

Some of these deaths may be the result of causes other than Covid-19, as people avoid hospitals for other ailments. But excess mortality has risen most steeply in places suffering the worst Covid-19 outbreaks, suggesting most of these deaths are directly related to the virus rather than simply side-effects of lockdowns.

David Spiegelhalter, professor of the public understanding of risk at Cambridge university, said the daily counts in the UK, for instance, were “far too low” because they only accounted for hospital deaths.

“The only unbiased comparison you can make between different countries is by looking at all cause mortality . . . There are so many questions about the rise we’ve seen in death that have not got Covid on the death certificate, yet you feel are inevitably linked in some way to this epidemic.”

The extra deaths are most pronounced in urban areas with the worst virus outbreaks, and have completely overwhelmed reporting mechanisms in some. This is especially worrying for many emerging economies, where total excess mortality is orders of magnitude higher than official coronavirus fatalities.

In Ecuador’s Guayas province, just 245 official Covid-related deaths were reported between March 1 and April 15, but data on total deaths show that about 10,200 more people died during this period than in a typical year — an increase of 350 per cent.

In the northern Italian region of Lombardy, the heart of Europe’s worst outbreak, there are more than 13,000 excess deaths in the official statistics for the nearly 1,700 municipalities for which data is available. This is an uptick of 155 per cent on the historical average and far higher than the 4,348 reported Covid deaths in the region.

The region surrounding the Italian city of Bergamo registered the worst increase internationally with a 464 per cent rise in deaths above normal levels, followed by New York City with a 200 per cent increase, and Madrid, Spain, with a 161 per cent increase.

In the Indonesian capital Jakarta, data on burials shows an increase of 1,400 relative to the historical average during the same period — 15 times the official figure of 90 Covid deaths for the same period.

The challenge is not confined to the developing world. In England and Wales, the number of fatalities in the week ending April 10 was the highest this century. The figure was 76 per cent higher than the average for the same week in the past five years, and the number of excess deaths was 58 per cent higher than the total number of reported Covid-deaths for the same period.

“If we want to . . . [understand] the ways different countries have responded to the surging pandemic and how [it] has affected the health of the population, the best way is to count excess deaths,” said David Leon, professor of epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

Experts have warned of serious under-reporting of Covid-19 cases in residential facilities for the elderly, who are particularly vulnerable to the virus. “Very few countries appear to be testing people in care homes, staff and residents, systematically,” said Adelina Comas-Herrera, research fellow at the Care Policy and Evaluation Centre of the London School of Economics.

Even the much higher numbers of deaths in the pandemic suggested by excess mortality statistics are likely to be conservative, as lockdowns mean that “mortality from numerous conditions such as traffic accidents and occupational injuries possibly went down”, said Markéta Pechholdová, assistant professor of demography at the University of Economics, Prague.

Clarification: A chart in this article was amended to indicate that the mortality data used for Italy is for an incomplete set of that country's municipalities. Complete national mortality data for Italy have not yet been released.

(READ MORE)

Hang on Evil, the figures quoted by the FT would appear to contradict those in TS's spreadsheet. They can't both be correct... 

[lazarus]

5 hours ago, fforest said:

He and Trump dont wear masks because they they know the only thing dangerous about Corona is taking all the nonsense in the news seriously.... 

Man, that is the most entertaining "coronavirus fake news" comment I've read on the internet in a long time.

Methinks Trump & Pence won't wear masks because they're narcissistic egomaniacs with little sense of their role in the world other than the mirror they look in every morning while brushing their teeth... 🤑
 

 

[code_slayer_bkk]

37 minutes ago, lazarus said:

Man, that is the most entertaining "coronavirus fake news" comment I've read on the internet in a long time.

Methinks Trump & Pence won't wear masks because they're narcissistic egomaniacs with little sense of their role in the world other than the mirror they look in every morning while brushing their teeth... 🤑
 

 

Can't you ever stop the Trump hate ... ?

[coxyhog]

Lockdown lingo
 
Coronacoaster
The ups and downs of your mood during the pandemic. You’re loving lockdown one minute but suddenly weepy with anxiety the next. It truly is “an emotional coronacoaster”. 

Quarantinis
Experimental cocktails mixed from whatever random ingredients you have left in the house. The boozy equivalent of a store cupboard supper. Southern Comfort and Ribena quarantini with a glacé cherry garnish, anyone? These are sipped at “locktail hour”, ie. wine o’clock during lockdown, which seems to be creeping earlier with each passing week. 

Blue Skype thinking
A work brainstorming session which takes place over a videoconferencing app. Such meetings might also be termed a “Zoomposium”. Naturally, they are to be avoided if at all possible.

Le Creuset wrist
It’s the new “avocado hand” - an aching arm after taking one’s best saucepan outside to bang during the weekly ‘Clap For Carers.’ It might be heavy but you’re keen to impress the neighbours with your high-quality kitchenware.

Coronials
As opposed to millennials, this refers to the future generation of babies conceived or born during coronavirus quarantine. They might also become known as “Generation C” or, more spookily, “Children of the Quarn”.

Furlough Merlot
Wine consumed in an attempt to relieve the frustration of not working. Also known as “bored-eaux” or “cabernet tedium”.

Coronadose
An overdose of bad news from consuming too much media during a time of crisis. Can result in a panicdemic.

The elephant in the Zoom
The glaring issue during a videoconferencing call that nobody feels able to mention. E.g. one participant has dramatically put on weight, suddenly sprouted terrible facial hair or has a worryingly messy house visible in the background.

Quentin Quarantino
An attention-seeker using their time in lockdown to make amateur films which they’re convinced are funnier and cleverer than they actually are.

Covidiot or Wuhan-ker
One who ignores public health advice or behaves with reckless disregard for the safety of others can be said to display “covidiocy” or be “covidiotic”. Also called a “lockclown” or even a “Wuhan-ker”.

Goutbreak
The sudden fear that you’ve consumed so much wine, cheese, home-made cake and Easter chocolate in lockdown that your ankles are swelling up like a medieval king’s. 

Antisocial distancing
Using health precautions as an excuse for snubbing neighbours and generally ignoring people you find irritating. 

Coughin’ dodger
Someone so alarmed by an innocuous splutter or throat-clear that they back away in terror. 

Mask-ara
Extra make-up applied to "make one's eyes pop" before venturing out in public wearing a face mask. 

Covid-10
The 10lbs in weight that we’re all gaining from comfort-eating and comfort-drinking. Also known as “fattening the curve”.

[galenkia]

5 hours ago, Ivan the terrible said:

yes but Ben can count 😉 

Yep

5 x 25% = 100%

[galenkia]

18 minutes ago, dcfc2007 said:

June the 15 is a very realistic prospect.

Tourists back before high season. Not a hope on earth, airlines are laying off staff.

14 day quarantines, covid free certificates, covid insurance etc. Not going to happen I'm afraid.

Be interesting to see flight prices when flying does resume. 

[fforest]

....

Edited February 11, 2021 by fforest

[lazarus]

2 hours ago, code_slayer_bkk said:

Can't you ever stop the Trump hate ... ?

Give him all the love you want.

He needs it now more than ever...
Pence, too.

Edited April 29, 2020 by lazarus
gargling

[code_slayer_bkk]

6 minutes ago, lazarus said:

Give him all the love you want.

He needs it now more than ever...
Pence, too.

Yea, I guess you could say the same for Boris ....

[boydeste]

11 minutes ago, code_slayer_bkk said:

Yea, I guess you could say the same for Boris ....

There is a major difference in this current situation, the virus appeares to be killing more men than women, our leader has just survived it, many others may not be so lucky me thinks!

[lazarus]

11 minutes ago, code_slayer_bkk said:

Yea, I guess you could say the same for Boris ....

Yes, they all need it. The world needs it.
Some countries are well on their way to controlling (& eradicating) COVID-19.
Some are not...

[boydeste]

1 hour ago, dcfc2007 said:

June the 15 is a very realistic prospect.

Tourists back before high season. Not a hope on earth, airlines are laying off staff.

14 day quarantines, covid free certificates, covid insurance etc. Not going to happen I'm afraid.

Ditto from me, I can't see much change in travel this year I am afraid.

[fforest]

On 4/29/2020 at 10:26 PM, lazarus said:

Yes, they all need it. The world needs it.
Some countries are well on their way to controlling (& eradicating) COVID-19.
Some are not...

.....

Edited February 11, 2021 by fforest

[lazarus]

The Grim COVID-19 Reaper has come for the most honored folks in the world...
The brave who fought for our freedom.

Nearly 70 dead in 'horrific' outbreak at veterans home

"Nearly 70 residents sickened with the coronavirus have died at a Massachusetts home for aging veterans, as state and federal officials try to figure out what went wrong in the deadliest known outbreak at a long-term care facility in the U.S...

...The death toll at the home appears to be the largest at a long-term care facility in the United States, experts said.

“It’s also symbolic of how unprepared many nursing facilities have been,” said Dr. Michael Wasserman, president of the California Association of Long Term Care Medicine.

“Geriatricians and experts in long-term care medicine were sounding alarms at the beginning of March and we’ve essentially been ignored by everyone. Federal, state, local government and the nursing home industry," he said..."

https://www.stripes.com/news/veterans/nearly-70-dead-in-horrific-outbreak-at-massachusetts-veterans-home-1.627682

Edited April 29, 2020 by lazarus
wear a mask f**ker

[dcfc2007]

18 minutes ago, boydeste said:

Ditto from me, I can't see much change in travel this year I am afraid.

The Aussie govt has said it will be six months before international travel even resumes. It is one of the least affected western nations which says a lot. I think a lot will depend on any travel requirements, particularly quarantine periods, anything like that will rule out 90% of tourists.

[Kathmandu]

16 hours ago, Thai Spice said:

Completely wrong.

Traffic deaths in France between 5 and 10 per day. Ok discount that.

Crime deaths ? Well this ain't the US .... Under 1 / day. Ok, disregard that.

BTW, did you even ever DO the numbers, the stats, or do you simply believe TV, FOX and The Sun, The Mirror ?

Instead of wasting time posting shite, sit down with paper, pen and calculator. Do some research . do some spreadsheets, 

 

Boy, you really know how to hurt a guy .  I wouldn't watch Fox if my life depended on it, nor read those other two rags you mention. My position on this issue is based on USA numbers, not bum f**k France. I know what the numbers are. If you want to find them, just Google it. It's not rocket science. Paper, pen calculator, spreadsheets?  The 70's are calling, they want their calculator back. lol

[Knuckles]

20 minutes ago, dcfc2007 said:

The Aussie govt has said it will be six months before international travel even resumes.

Which member of the Australian government actually said this?

[boydeste]

15 minutes ago, Kathmandu said:

Boy, you really know how to hurt a guy .  I wouldn't watch Fox if my life depended on it, nor read those other two rags you mention. My position on this issue is based on USA numbers, not bum f**k France. I know what the numbers are. If you want to find them, just Google it. It's not rocket science. Paper, pen calculator, spreadsheets?  The 70's are calling, they want their calculator back. lol

Wasn't it a slide rule way back then?

[lazarus]

9 minutes ago, boydeste said:

Wasn't it a slide rule way back then?

I worked in a department store my senior of high school...1976.

We sold "advanced" TI calculators.

...& Pong video games!

[KhunDon]

11 hours ago, farangme said:

Am I missing something here, how many make it out of care homes🙄

We have a posh "care home" near us, (it really is posh, I've been inside to look around a few years ago, when we were considering a care home for my dad) that have 59 residents and charges most of it's residents £2k a week! For that they get a bedroom and a sitting room and 3 hots a day, everything else is extra and chargeable. It's part of a group of 11, expensive care homes around the country.

Speaking to someone who works there, the company went into a hard lock down in the 3rd week of February. No new admissions and strictly no visitors. All staff have to wear full PPE and change gloves, masks and gowns between each encounter with residents. They aren't even allowed to wear their uniforms to or from work and the company gives them new uniforms each shift and the old ones are washed by the company daily.

According to him and I have  reason to disbelieve him, they have had no cases of Corona virus within their homes. They have had the "normal amount" of deaths that you would expect in those places, but nothing above the average they would normally get.

It would seem that the owners were very quick off the mark when this virus became general knowledge, putting their homes in lock down and ordering PPE in bulk, to supplement the large stock they already had in hand. That and the strict adherence to no new residents and the no visitor rule, may well have saved a lot of extra deaths from the virus.

A lot of care/nursing homes around the country are being run on very low margins, mainly because councils were paying homes the absolute minimum they could get away with and now it's coming home to roost. The danger is that whole swathes of the country will lose their care homes as many have already shut due to this virus and once shut, it's unlikely they will ever re-open. That will only mean one thing, when the elderly are admitted to hospital for medical reasons, on discharge, they will have nowhere to go.

If and when this is all over, there needs to be a hard look at social care across the whole spectrum, something that should have been done 15 years ago, but it seems subsequent governments have put off for far too long. As is usual with most things, it comes down to money, either paid by the government, or by the public in extra taxes.

Edited April 29, 2020 by KhunDon
Spelling

[boydeste]

3 minutes ago, lazarus said:

I worked in a department store my senior of high school...1976.

We sold "advanced" TI calculators.

...& Pong video games!

It was meant as a fun comment, I think calculators were around in the 60s, all be it a tad on the large side.

[john luke]

9 minutes ago, boydeste said:

It was meant as a fun comment, I think calculators were around in the 60s, all be it a tad on the large side.

[dcfc2007]

29 minutes ago, Knuckles said:

Which member of the Australian government actually said this?

Australia's tourism industry has been dealt another crushing blow with Treasurer Josh Frydenberg warning non-residents could be banned from the country for six months - 'maybe longer'.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8129511/amp/Australias-border-remain-closed-SIX-MONTHS-LONGER-government-warns.html

The Treasurer.

[lazarus]

1 hour ago, fforest said:

You think they are going to let the virus ride off into the sunset and end of the show,?.....Nope...

They have wave #2 planned for next fall......And wave #2 is going to be the real deal......Not a bunch of number and  statistic fudging like wave #1........

So at least we will have a few summer months that should be ok.....

Yeah, I think you hit that one spot on...

[Knuckles]

9 minutes ago, dcfc2007 said:

Australia's tourism industry has been dealt another crushing blow with Treasurer Josh Frydenberg warning non-residents could be banned from the country for six months - 'maybe longer'.

That article, with all the "coulds" and "maybes" and "perhaps" is 6 WEEKS OLD.

Doesn't sound very official to me.