COVID 19 GLOBAL

[fygjam]

24 minutes ago, fforest said:

Evil dont worry about the vaccine....Its sitting on the shelf ready to go.......They are now just working to make peoples life miserable enough so they will want to voluntarily take the vaccine.... 

Have you got a source for that?

It's not Jake, is it?

I have voluntarily been vaccinated against many diseases throughout my lifetime, as have most sensible people. I will get vaccinated when a vaccine is approved and available.

 

[Thai Spice]

42 minutes ago, fforest said:

We would have to continue with social distancing and other restrictions at least until an effective vaccine is developed and that could take several years, if ever.

 

Evil dont worry about the vaccine....Its sitting on the shelf ready to go.......They are now just working to make peoples life miserable enough so they will want to voluntarily take the vaccine.... 

And pay for it, clap their hands and say thank you....

 

[Ivan the terrible]

32 minutes ago, dcfc2007 said:

No I wouldn't rather we abandon anything. This virus is not going away soon, there is no garuntee a vaccine will work. We need to learn to live with it. The economic carnage will kill more people than the virus itself.

So you would accept the death rate that we are experiencing in this 1st wave were it  to continue ...there will be a second wave  once the  lockdown is eased 

this is like Spanish flu 1917-20 but worse with a higher mortality rate....that time span represents the waves of infection ...many,many  millions of deaths 

Of course we cannot wait 3 years to go back to new normal  but science has given us the knowledge to develop a vaccine..if one is proven to be effective,within a short time span..if it works we can over the next year get back to some semblance of normality

the lockdown provides 2 purposes :-

1 stop the overwhelming of health services

2 Buy us time to develop a vaccine or less likely an effective treatment..if no effective vaccine is on the horizon by 1st jan 2021 we are going for your herd immunity fix

Central banks can provide money/print,,this wont be quantitative easing but quantitative printing  to mitigate the economic catastrophe so long as they all act in unison and not assymetrically. to mitigate xchange rate fluctuations ..inflation 10% or so in the recovery phase if this happens .buy assetts in the short term is my uneducated guess

[dcfc2007]

6 minutes ago, Ivan the terrible said:

So you would accept the death rate that we are experiencing in this 1st wave were it  to continue ...there will be a second wave  once the  lockdown is eased 

this is like Spanish flu 1917-20 but worse with a higher mortality rate....that time span represents the waves of infection ...many,many  millions of deaths 

Of course we cannot wait 3 years to go back to new normal  but science has given us the knowledge to develop a vaccine..if one is proven to be effective,within a short time span..if it works we can over the next year get back to some semblance of normality

the lockdown provides 2 purposes :-

1 stop the overwhelming of health services

2 Buy us time to develop a vaccine or less likely an effective treatment..if no effective vaccine is on the horizon by 1st jan 2021 we are going for your herd immunity fix

Central banks can provide money/print,,this wont be quantitative easing but quantitative printing  to mitigate the economic catastrophe so long as they all act in unison and not assymetrically. to mitigate xchange rate fluctuations ..inflation 10% or so in the recovery phase if this happens .buy assetts in the short term is my uneducated guess

The death rate hasn't been established yet. Nobody knows for sure what the death rate is. What is certain though is that the early estimates of a mortality rate of 5% was grossly overestimated.

This is nothing like the Spanish flu, it's 2020 not 1918. Healthcare, living conditions, awareness, public health management are so much more advanced now than they were in 1918.

This lockdown is banking on a vaccine being found when there is absolutely no garuntee that a vaccine will be found. It has crashed the economy and no amount of quantative easing is going to fix that.

We have bought our health service more than enough time. So much time that the nightingale hospitals are completely empty and nurses are becoming social media superstars with their stupid fucking dancing.

 

Edited May 1, 2020 by dcfc2007

[Ivan the terrible]

6 minutes ago, dcfc2007 said:

The death rate hasn't been established yet. Nobody knows for sure what the death rate is. What is certain though is that the early estimates of a mortality rate of 5% was grossly overestimated.

This is nothing like the Spanish flu, it's 2020 not 1918. Healthcare, living conditions, awareness, public health management are so much more advanced now than they were in 1918.

This lockdown is banking on a vaccine being found when there is absolutely no garuntee that a vaccine will be found. It has crashed the economy and no amount of quantative easing is going to fix that.

We have bought our health service more than enough time. So much time that the nightingale hospitals are completely empty and nurses are becoming social media superstars with their stupid fucking dancing.

 

1 no it hasnt  EXACTLY..That can only be done after the fact..i agree ..but  you would have to have bats in the belfry to compute otherwise

2 At least as devastating as Spanish flu  ..we are only 3months in ..hopefully the virus will mutate into a less aggressive form  like SARS 2003...God help us if it mutates into a more aggressive form

3 no guarantee at all ...hope..a wing and a prayer ...but we have a modern day Mahattan project well underway..pretty much the brightest on the planet..if they cannot develop a vaccine then herd it is 

Herd immunity is the fall back...with catastrophic death numbers 

you underestimate future waves if the infective agent doesnt change..or if it gets worse or better

 

[farangme]

12 hours ago, lazarus said:

63,841 Americans have died in the past three months from COVID-19.
Maybe you should ask their families.

With or from?

[farangme]

One think I've learned from Facebook and these forums, you can't teach stupid.

[coxyhog]

4 minutes ago, farangme said:

One think I've learned from Facebook and these forums, you can't teach stupid.

Talking of stupid....

[fygjam]

5 minutes ago, farangme said:

One think I've learned from Facebook and these forums, you can't teach stupid.

But it's sure easy to recognise!

 

[fygjam]

14 minutes ago, Ivan the terrible said:

but  you would have to have bats in the belfry to compute otherwise

Please don't mention bats. It's them what got us into this mess.

 

[fygjam]

4 hours ago, Ivan the terrible said:

i understand PCR amplification tests are quantitative too,,,reflecting the number of amplifications required to achieve a certain number of replicant genomes  

So ..a negative test can still mean the base genome is still present ,albeit in ,small amounts 

 

4 hours ago, Thai Spice said:

I am impressed.....

No, really....🙄🙄🙄🙄

The level of medical and scientific knowledge on this board is amazing. I mean, specially for a Pattaya mongerers forum.

This should really drive him round the twist.

 

[lazarus]

32 minutes ago, farangme said:

With or from?

Ask their grieving loved ones...
I'm sure they don't care.

[dcfc2007]

45 minutes ago, Ivan the terrible said:

1 no it hasnt  EXACTLY..That can only be done after the fact..i agree ..but  you would have to have bats in the belfry to compute otherwise

2 At least as devastating as Spanish flu  ..we are only 3months in ..hopefully the virus will mutate into a less aggressive form  like SARS 2003...God help us if it mutates into a more aggressive form

3 no guarantee at all ...hope..a wing and a prayer ...but we have a modern day Mahattan project well underway..pretty much the brightest on the planet..if they cannot develop a vaccine then herd it is 

Herd immunity is the fall back...with catastrophic death numbers 

you underestimate future waves if the infective agent doesnt change..or if it gets worse or better

 

It's nowhere near as devastating as the Spanish flu, are you for real? The spanish flu killed around 50 million people, Covid-19 has killed 230,000 so far. There is no evidence to suggest that it will 'mutate', I think you've been watching too many Hollywood movies.

I'm not underestimating anything. The numbers are there for all to see, this virus is about as lethal as the flu. 

What is more worrying is that the number of people attending A&E for other illnesses has collapsed, some Doctors are now predicting that more people will die from Cancer in the next 5 years than coronavirus because they aren't coming forward to be assessed. 

Throw into the mix higher rates of suicide, alcoholism and murder and the fallout from the economic catastrophe that is Covid19 will be significantly worse than the virus itself.

[Evil Penevil]

2 hours ago, fforest said:

Evil dont worry about the vaccine....Its sitting on the shelf ready to go.......They are now just working to make peoples life miserable enough so they will want to voluntarily take the vaccine.... 

I am very worried about whether the vaccine can be developed in a timely fashion.  Without an effective vaccine against COVID-19,  herd immunity  can't really kick in before there's a terrible cost from loss of life and burdening of  health care systems as well as staggering economic losses due to all the restrictions.

But it's quite a conspiracy theory to claim a vaccine against COVID-19 already exists.  How exactly would that conspiracy work?  What government or pharmaceutical company has the power and resources to develop a deadly virus, find a vaccine against it and then set off a global pandemic just to whip up demand for the vaccine?  How much money can they make?  The economic losses in every country in the world from the pandemic have been enormous and will take years to recover.  The money to be made seems paltry compared to the cost of the pandemic.

So who is sitting on the COVID-19 vaccine?  Big Pharma?  The government of the U.S.?  or China? or Russia? 

Please, please, PLEASE don't tell me it's the New World Order, the Illuminati, the Bilderberg Group, the Knights Templar, the Elders of Zion or David Icke's reptilian aliens who are behind COVID-19.  BTW, David Icke himself believes there's a connection between 5G towers and the pandemic.

2 hours ago, fygjam said:

Have you got a source for that?

I have a source that debunks the "vaccine already exists" myth:  Social Media Posts Spread Bogus Coronavirus Conspiracy Theory   It goes all the way back to January.

On 4/27/2020 at 10:22 PM, code_slayer_bkk said:

I also read somewhere and I cannot find it ... that the FEDS were reimbursing the States 12K for each Wuhan virus death ... if this is true ... NY is taking the Federal government to the cleaners ... which wouldn't surprise me one bit ...

That myth has also been debunked.  The Federal money was for treatment of patients, not compensation for deaths:  Hospital Payments and the COVID-19 Death Count

 

Evil

 

Edited May 1, 2020 by Evil Penevil

[JPK]

Brilliant 😀😀😀

 

 

[fygjam]

11 minutes ago, dcfc2007 said:

It's nowhere near as devastating as the Spanish flu, are you for real? The spanish flu killed around 50 million people, Covid-19 has killed 230,000 so far. There is no evidence to suggest that it will 'mutate', I think you've been watching too many Hollywood movies.I'

So how did it get from bats to humans without mutation?

All viruses mutate, that's what viruses do.

There's been about 10,000 variations (mutations) of the genome sofar according to  some virologists.

 Each spot is a variation (mutation) of the genome.

And where those different genomes travelled to.

[Ivan the terrible]

13 minutes ago, dcfc2007 said:

It's nowhere near as devastating as the Spanish flu, are you for real? The spanish flu killed around 50 million people, Covid-19 has killed 230,000 so far. There is no evidence to suggest that it will 'mutate', I think you've been watching too many Hollywood movies.

I'm not underestimating anything. The numbers are there for all to see, this virus is about as lethal as the flu. 

What is more worrying is that the number of people attending A&E for other illnesses has collapsed, some Doctors are now predicting that more people will die from Cancer in the next 5 years than coronavirus because they aren't coming forward to be assessed. 

Throw into the mix higher rates of suicide, alcoholism and murder and the fallout from the economic catastrophe that is Covid19 will be significantly worse than the virus itself.

as i said this is half way through the first and hopefully last wave...im not gonna  hold my breath 

yes ...i am for real ...the 50m from Spanish flu was ESTIMATED,,,do you think anyone is counting in Africa,south america,central america,islamic lands in the middle east,indonesia ,malaysia,phillipines etc ...you can multiply current deaths by 10x at least

Evil posted a precient graph re excess deaths in DEVELOPED countries ..open your blinkered eyes man 

[dcfc2007]

Just now, fygjam said:

So how did it get from bats to humans without mutation?

All viruses mutate, that's what viruses do.

There's been about 10,000 variations (mutations) of the genome sofar according to  some virologists.

 Each spot is a variation (mutation) of the genome.

And where those different genomes travelled to.

There is no evidence to suggest that Covid-19 will mutate for the worse. 

'geneticists do not believe this coronavirus is likely to get more transmissible or more deadly. Chiu said most mutations are silent, making slight changes in gene sequences without altering the characteristics of the virus. He said flu viruses mutate at a much faster rate, which is why they return every year, but it is very rare for a particular flu to be much worse than its predecessors.'

https://www.sfchronicle.com/science/article/The-science-of-coronavirus-how-fast-it-15135782.php

[fygjam]

2 minutes ago, dcfc2007 said:

There is no evidence to suggest that Covid-19 will mutate for the worse. 

'geneticists do not believe this coronavirus is likely to get more transmissible or more deadly. Chiu said most mutations are silent, making slight changes in gene sequences without altering the characteristics of the virus. He said flu viruses mutate at a much faster rate, which is why they return every year, but it is very rare for a particular flu to be much worse than its predecessors.'

https://www.sfchronicle.com/science/article/The-science-of-coronavirus-how-fast-it-15135782.php

So how did it spill over from bats to humans?

 

Edited May 1, 2020 by fygjam

[dcfc2007]

2 minutes ago, Ivan the terrible said:

as i said this is half way through the first and hopefully last wave...im not gonna  hold my breath 

yes ...i am for real ...the 50m from Spanish flu was ESTIMATED,,,do you think anyone is counting in Africa,south america,central america,islamic lands in the middle east,indonesia ,malaysia,phillipines etc ...you can multiply current deaths by 10x at least

Evil posted a precient graph re excess deaths in DEVELOPED countries ..open your blinkered eyes man 

My eyes aren't blinkered. 

I have evaluated all the data, read across multiple sources, and worked out for myself that the Covid-19 for the overwhelming majority of people is a very mild illness. The death rate is now believed to be around 0.66% but that remains to be confirmed.

This isn't 1918. People are not living in tenement slums unable to access safe hygiene facilities. This is 2020 and our healthcare system is well able to cope with a mild viral illness in the population, it does this every single year.

You need to stop getting yourself so hysterical, you have more chance of popping an artery from worrying than dying of Covid-19.

[dcfc2007]

1 minute ago, fygjam said:

So how did it spill over from bats to humans?

 

Are you incapable of reading. I said there is no evidence of it mutating for the worse, scientists are in agreement over that.

Read the blurb I included in the post.

[Binlid]

Just text my wife at work to tell her that the Welsh government is to give all 64600 carers a £500 gift for all their hard work, bless her little cotton socks below is her reply

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/care-homes-workers-500-coronavirus-18182878        

[Ivan the terrible]

7 minutes ago, dcfc2007 said:

My eyes aren't blinkered. 

I have evaluated all the data, read across multiple sources, and worked out for myself that the Covid-19 for the overwhelming majority of people is a very mild illness. The death rate is now believed to be around 0.66% but that remains to be confirmed.

This isn't 1918. People are not living in tenement slums unable to access safe hygiene facilities. This is 2020 and our healthcare system is well able to cope with a mild viral illness in the population, it does this every single year.

You need to stop getting yourself so hysterical, you have more chance of popping an artery from worrying than dying of Covid-19.

you are talking about the developed world ...at least 50 % of the world population live in circumstances you describe...with f**k all health facilities

i stand by my prediction ...ultimately 50m + deaths unless the virus mutates to something less virulent  or an effective  vaccine becomes  available,sadly

 

Edited May 1, 2020 by Ivan the terrible

[fygjam]

4 minutes ago, dcfc2007 said:

Are you incapable of reading. I said there is no evidence of it mutating for the worse, scientists are in agreement over that.

Read the blurb I included in the post.

Additional study is needed to determine whether deadlier mutations are possible

Hardly a guarantee there won't be any deadly mutations. (Mind you, it's deadly enough already).

Still no explanation on how the virus jumped from bats to humans either. Same for SARS and MERS.

 

[Ivan the terrible]

Just now, fygjam said:

Additional study is needed to determine whether deadlier mutations are possible

Hardly a guarantee there won't be any deadly mutations. (Mind you, it's deadly enough already).

Still no explanation on how the virus jumped from bats to humans either. Same for SARS and MERS.

 

one would think it has to be injestion ..with spill over into the respiratory tree

New tests suggest Saliva is more specific as a pcr...salivary adeno cells as resevoir?,they are similar to pancreatic cells histologically...musing here...purely speculative

ACE 2 receptors are abundant in the pancreas...

cluster in QL  around a toilet in a health care facility