COVID 19 GLOBAL

[Nightcrawler]

2 minutes ago, Nightcrawler said:

Published in 2018 and amended 2020.

If you think the number of deaths is acceptable then that's up to you conscience. Who has the right to. Play God with other people's lives. I am prepared to self isolate both for my own protection and the protection of others. I have no control over the choice of others but I can simply avoid them. 

 

[dcfc2007]

13 minutes ago, Nightcrawler said:

, 

Of course they rise but not anywhere in the same proportion as the Covid 19 epidemic has spread. 

You say that the "only people You can see" etc... 

I really don't think any of us are qualified to make such a statement as we are not all seeing and all knowing, even if some may think they are. 

Everyone wants to get back to work and back to normality but that has to depend on when it's safe. You can't just categorise people's opinions by their political or social class. 

I am not a Boris fan but I think that he has handled the situation quite well thus far.  Of course mistakes have been made as they have in other countries but we are dealing with the biggest threat to our nation since WW2. 

In terms of cancer treatment, I have recently finished my cancer treatment and I can assure you that the Royal Marsden is still treating cancer patients every day. 

What has to be understood is that treatments such as Chemotherapy Considerably weaken the immune system and leaves them very vulnerable to the virus

Of course we can comment. Nobody is all seeing and knowing. We all have the ability to evaluate the evidence and make our own conclusions. The problem is we took onboard the so called experts without questioning.

Prof Ferguson has a history of massively over estimating the impact of public health concerns. This is the same 'expert' that said there would be millions of swine flu deaths. He has got it spectacularly wrong every single time.

[farangme]

1 minute ago, dcfc2007 said:

Of course we can comment. Nobody is all seeing and knowing. We all have the ability to evaluate the evidence and make our own conclusions. The problem is we took onboard the so called experts without questioning.

Prof Ferguson has a history of massively over estimating the impact of public health concerns. This is the same 'expert' that said there would be millions of swine flu deaths. He has got it spectacularly wrong every single time.

His taste in Women is quite good though, bet She takes it up the Gary Glitter. He is/was on Gov payroll, He'll say anything they want him to say. 

I can't wait until the economy here is truly fried. I want to see massive job losses and some of these people suffer.

My friend called me today, He can't even visit His daughter because neighbours put photos on facebook and call the Cops. The majority of these people are idiots living in this Country. Snitches should get stitches. Feel sorry for the sensible ones but British are too sheep like, wont question, just obey.

[Nightcrawler]

1 minute ago, dcfc2007 said:

Of course we can comment. Nobody is all seeing and knowing. We all have the ability to evaluate the evidence and make our own conclusions. The problem is we took onboard the so called experts without questioning.

Prof Ferguson has a history of massively over estimating the impact of public health concerns. This is the same 'expert' that said there would be millions of swine flu deaths. He has got it spectacularly wrong every single time.

Professor Ferguson is but one of thousands of experts around the world. The bigger question is......... Are we prepared to risk them being wrong or right. The truth is that none of can know fore sure. We can only do what we think is right or on the advice and guidance from government. 

We just have a difference of opinion on the matter and none of us can change the inevitable. Some people are gamblers and some are pragmatists. I just don't want others to gamble with my life because they think they know best. It's that simple. 

[farangme]

1 hour ago, code_slayer_bkk said:

Britain’s Supreme Court has thrown the country’s deportation policies into chaos by ruling that a foreign criminal cannot be deported to a country with poorer free healthcare than the United Kingdom.

Wow .. what f**king idiots !

Yup, what's running this Country are truly imbeciles. 

[farangme]

12 minutes ago, Nightcrawler said:

 

No, I don't think any number of deaths is acceptable. Seasonal flu kills tens of 1000s every year in the UK, as does other viruses and illnesses.

It's also NOT acceptable that life saving treatments have been reduced by 75% in the NHS.

I understand you're not well at the moment and I'm sorry to hear that. People going through treatments that weaken their bodies will of course have to isolate. The immune system will be shot, any type of flu, Covid etc could finish them. I totally get that but what I don't get is destroying the economy, and stopping life saving treatments on the NHS because of this.

Without a strong economy and business, the money to run the NHS will soon dry up. This is our money they are playing with, not theirs. 

[dcfc2007]

13 minutes ago, farangme said:

His taste in Women is quite good though, bet She takes it up the Gary Glitter. He is/was on Gov payroll, He'll say anything they want him to say. 

I can't wait until the economy here is truly fried. I want to see massive job losses and some of these people suffer.

My friend called me today, He can't even visit His daughter because neighbours put photos on facebook and call the Cops. The majority of these people are idiots living in this Country. Snitches should get stitches. Feel sorry for the sensible ones but British are too sheep like, wont question, just obey.

It's already gas cookered mated. There is an ill-fated belief that once the lockdown is over everything will just take off again. You can't just crash the world economy for 2-3 months and not expect there to be any long term implications.

[dcfc2007]

13 minutes ago, Nightcrawler said:

Professor Ferguson is but one of thousands of experts around the world. The bigger question is......... Are we prepared to risk them being wrong or right. The truth is that none of can know fore sure. We can only do what we think is right or on the advice and guidance from government. 

We just have a difference of opinion on the matter and none of us can change the inevitable. Some people are gamblers and some are pragmatists. I just don't want others to gamble with my life because they think they know best. It's that simple. 

Prof Ferguson was the lead expert behind the Imperial College model that the UK and US based their response upon. The model that predicted 2.2 million US deaths and 600k UK deaths. Even if there was no lockdown there wouldn't have been anywhere near that amount of deaths.

 

[jcolorado]

Found this interesting

 

 

OPINION

It's time to face grim Covid-19 reality

 

CHARTCHAI PARASUKFREELANCE ECONOMIST

PUBLISHED : 7 MAY 2020 AT 04:00

NEWSPAPER SECTION: NEWS

• 2

At the onset of the coronavirus outbreak, there emerged an outbreak containment option called "Hurt and then ending" which in Thai is jeb tae jop. The complete lockdown of Wuhan was a prime example of that. In Thailand, the lockdown measure was first implemented in Buri Ram before it become a standard practice nationwide. The effectiveness of the measures varies across the globe -- from a seemingly complete success story in Wuhan to a not-yet sustained success in Spain, to a success and then failure in Singapore. I do not think anybody doubts the effectiveness of the lockdown on controlling the outbreak, but many, including myself, are starting to come out and question the cost of lockdown, which I have previously mentioned.

I was watching a programme on Japan Public Television (NHK World) and was surprised to hear that Japan's largest life assurance firm -- Nippon Life -- is concerned about the prolonged lockdown measure imposed by Shinzo Abe's government. According to its research, the current one-month lockdown due to end yesterday will cause 1 million people to become unemployed. Based on 30 years of statistics, there is almost a one-to-one relationship between unemployment and suicide. From that statistical relationship, I can calculate that 1 million more unemployed workers could mean an additional 10,000 suicide cases. Japan currently has about 500 Covid-19 deaths, but unemployment-induced deaths could be 20 times higher than that. Now you see why Nippon Life is concerned. The company has to pay for death claims regardless of the cause of death.

A one-month extension of the lockdown to May 31 has already been announced in Japan. According to the study, one million more people are expected to lose their jobs as a result -- meaning the lockdown will shed 2 million jobs. The title of the presentation, by the way, is "Not a choice between 'saving lives' and 'saving the economy'". When you think about it, that really says it all.

It does not matter whether you support strong containment measures or if you prefer a more balanced approach. Either way, there are two indisputable facts to consider:

Fact one: a vaccine will not end the outbreak. It is every government's dream that the discovery of a Covid-19 vaccine will put an end to this, after which life and the economy can get back to normal. Recently, an €8 billion (280.2 billion baht) fund financed by 30 countries was set up to to develop a vaccine. This pooling tactic was implemented to accelerate the development of a vaccine and prevent a single lab or country controlling the supply. Right now, there are around 70 labs worldwide working around the clock to find a cure.

I have no doubt that a vaccine will be discovered soon, but I have strong doubts about production capability limits. There are already several promising developments in China and at Oxford University, with tests at the human-testing level. It does not matter which lab is the first to come out with a vaccine. The formula will be shared around the globe to quickly produce the vaccine for distribution.

Here is the real problem. The world population is 7.8 billion and, thus, we need 7.8 billion doses of vaccine. How fast can the labs produce it? Let's optimistically assume that every lab combined can turn out 1 million doses of vaccine a day. It would take 7,800 days to completely vaccinate the world population, which means the last person to get vaccinated will have to wait 21.4 years. Whoever that person is, I am afraid they might not live that long.

The first option is to boost production capabilities and facilities. Fine; hire 1,000 hand Buddhas to work there. But the production of vaccines will be limited by raw materials used in the manufacturing process like glass tubes. One million doses of vaccine need one million glass tubes and one million syringes for injection. Syringes are the most critical supply as the vaccine cannot be taken orally. I do recommend that my readers stock up on syringes. It could save your life and your friends' lives one day.

A more practical option is not to vaccinate the entire population. A limited (privileged) number of people will get to be vaccinated according to the availability of supply. To vaccinate only 1% of the population, we will need 78 million doses of vaccine. I do hope that all the labs can supply that amount in a year. Two questions. How does one choose privileged persons? And would it make any differences if only 1% of the population is "clean" while the remaining 99% are roaming around as potential carriers?

The issue of a vaccine is pointless as only a small number of people will be fortunate enough to be vaccinated. I am not going to bother discussing the cost issue. Those privileged few can surely pay whatever price you ask.

Fact 2: lockdowns are effective only for a limited time and limited territory. There are two issues here -- asymptomatic Covid-19 carriers are difficult to trace, and the outbreak is global. Even if a country shows low or zero numbers of infected patients, there are a large number of asymptomatic carriers walking around ready to transmit the virus.

According to the Mers outbreak statistics, about 29% of infected people show no symptoms. For Covid-19, studies of limited cases indicate about 18% to 50% of infected people are asymptomatic. Therefore, one can never really get rid of the virus, particularly after the reopening of borders.

When a vaccine, if available at all, is in limited supply and a resurgence of infections is certain, my recommendation is to live with the virus as we live with other infectious diseases.

Protect as many as we can without destroying economies and social lives. Once doctors and governments wake up from the dream vision of a virus-free world, it will be time to talk with economists on how to do damage control.

Chartchai Parasuk, PhD, is a freelance economist.

CHARTCHAI PARASUK

FREELANCE ECONOMIST

 

Chartchai Parasuk, PhD, is a freelance economist.

 

[farangme]

6 minutes ago, dcfc2007 said:

It's already gas cookered mated. There is an ill-fated belief that once the lockdown is over everything will just take off again. You can't just crash the world economy for 2-3 months and not expect there to be any long term implications.

Yup. The lockdown started 23rd March it looks like it will continue up here until June at some point, and even then, past Xmas into 2021 until pubs, restaurants, gyms etc open. Even then if the 2 metre rule applies, there's no point of them EVER opening again.

Most places are packed out only at weekends, trade poor week days. We are looking at the total annihilation  of  the UK leisure industry. Millions of job losses.

And the Nation has been so frightened that it might take Months or years for many to want to go out again.

We could be looking at the total annihilation of the UK travel industry too.

By f**k, what a mess this Government has created.

 

Edited May 10, 2020 by farangme

[dcfc2007]

Just now, farangme said:

Yup. The lockdown started 23rd March it looks like it will continue up here until June at some point, and even then, past Xmas into 2021 until pubs, restaurants, gyms etc open. Even then if the 2 metre rule applies, there's no point of them EVER opening again.

Most places are packed out only at weekends, trade poor week days. We are looking at the total annihilation  of  the UK leisure industry. Millions of job losses.

And the Nation has been so frightened that it might take Months or years for many to want to go out again.

We took be looking at the total annihilation of the UK travel industry too.

By f**k, what a mess this Government has created.

 

The owner of a very popular Indian restaurant near me was interviewed in the paper. He said that paying back the loan he will need to open again, plus not being able to sell a full restaurant means he wouldn't be able to cover the electric bill.

[Stillearly]

Thought the PMs statement tonight was as clear as mud ... if you can work from home then stay at home , if you can't then go to work tomorrow.. but don't use public transport , unless you don't have a bike ...and be alert ...unless you are Scottish ..then stay home 

 

[Nightcrawler]

30 minutes ago, dcfc2007 said:

The owner of a very popular Indian restaurant near me was interviewed in the paper. He said that paying back the loan he will need to open again, plus not being able to sell a full restaurant means he wouldn't be able to cover the electric bill.

Where as a friend of mine who owns a hairdressers got a 10k grant from his LA and his staff have been furlowed. He will be able to open up again in time.  No one asked for a Pandemic and no one wants it but its here. Its all about striking a balance.  People  survived WW2 we can survive during this virus. Epidemic.  But there has to be a balance between social and economic decisions. None of us can predict the future. 

It is a trickle effect at the moment and we will have to wait to see the impact week by week and month by month. 

My personal priority is my own safety the safety of those around me and I want to be alive when things start to get better and I want to be able to travel again but not until. It is deemed safe by either end

 

[Lemondropkid]

2 hours ago, code_slayer_bkk said:

Britain’s Supreme Court has thrown the country’s deportation policies into chaos by ruling that a foreign criminal cannot be deported to a country with poorer free healthcare than the United Kingdom.

Wow .. what f**king idiots !

Not disagreeing but how does this affect you and isn't this a story about some skank from Sudan whose claiming he's got HIV, not COVID-19? 

[dcfc2007]

27 minutes ago, Nightcrawler said:

Where as a friend of mine who owns a hairdressers got a 10k grant from his LA and his staff have been furlowed. He will be able to open up again in time.  No one asked for a Pandemic and no one wants it but its here. Its all about striking a balance.  People  survived WW2 we can survive during this virus. Epidemic.  But there has to be a balance between social and economic decisions. None of us can predict the future. 

It is a trickle effect at the moment and we will have to wait to see the impact week by week and month by month. 

My personal priority is my own safety the safety of those around me and I want to be alive when things start to get better and I want to be able to travel again but not until. It is deemed safe by either end

 

WW2 was a worldwide conflict including a genocide that esulted in the deaths of 75 million people. This is a viral infection with a fatality rate estimated to be about 0.66%, which kills mainly those who are very old and those with severe underlying illnesses. There is no comparison to be made between the two.

[Lemondropkid]

27 minutes ago, Stillearly said:

Thought the PMs statement tonight was as clear as mud ... if you can work from home then stay at home , if you can't then go to work tomorrow.. but don't use public transport , unless you don't have a bike ...and be alert ...unless you are Scottish ..then stay home 

 

I was confused by it, but put it down to fact I was p*****d🧐.

Is there meant to be some detailed published tomorrow?  Will see if anything emerges but what was more impressed with what Ireland came out with. Not saying the Irish have got it right or their plans are "correct" but at least there was some detail.

 

[Stillearly]

Just now, Lemondropkid said:

I was confused by it, but put it down to fact I was p*****d🧐.

Is there meant to be some detailed published tomorrow?  Will see if anything emerges but what was more impressed with what Ireland came out with. Not saying the Irish have got it right or their plans are "correct" but at least there was some detail.

 

More when he speaks to Parliament tomorrow, but surely his statement tonight should have made it easy for everyone to understand what they need to do when they get up tomorrow morning...  

[farangme]

43 minutes ago, Stillearly said:

Thought the PMs statement tonight was as clear as mud ... if you can work from home then stay at home , if you can't then go to work tomorrow.. but don't use public transport , unless you don't have a bike ...and be alert ...unless you are Scottish ..then stay home 

 

As I always do, to Hell with that work lark👍😂

[Lemondropkid]

4 minutes ago, Stillearly said:

More when he speaks to Parliament tomorrow, but surely his statement tonight should have made it easy for everyone to understand what they need to do when they get up tomorrow morning...  

Yep, I was left confused by it.  I thought he was saying that the "changes" might happen from Wednesday??  Have a few self-employed mates who will be wondering are they allowed to go work tomorrow, who are in trades where they can't work from home.

Can I get horse racing back on Wednesday on the grounds that the jockeys definitely can't work from home, and the footie??

[Starshine]

1 minute ago, Lemondropkid said:

Yep, I was left confused by it.  I thought he was saying that the "changes" might happen from Wednesday??  Have a few self-employed mates who will be wondering are they allowed to go work tomorrow, who are in trades where they can't work from home.

Can I get horse racing back on Wednesday on the grounds that the jockeys definitely can't work from home, and the footie??

Apparently horse racing resumes in France tomorrow.

[Lemondropkid]

1 minute ago, Starshine said:

Apparently horse racing resumes in France tomorrow.

Yep first race at 09-55 on Sky. from Longchamp good quality stuff too. I've been enjoying punting on the HK racing- just small stakes and a bit of fun. 

[Stillearly]

[Thai Spice]

3 hours ago, Nightcrawler said:

I am borderline high risk group and in almost total isolation. That is my choice. But if irresponsible individuals who only care for themselves want to help spread the virus by

As you say mate, thats your choice and you are entitled to it.

But dont call me irresponsible, and allow me to make my own live  style  choice same as I allow you to make yours.

It's as easy as that. 

PS : I am 67, in good health and I DONT consider myself in any high risk group.

But I know I am closer to the exit than to the entrance, it's normal process of life.

 

[Nightcrawler]

42 minutes ago, Thai Spice said:

As you say mate, thats your choice and you are entitled to it.

But dont call me irresponsible, and allow me to make my own live  style  choice same as I allow you to make yours.

It's as easy as that. 

PS : I am 67, in good health and I DONT consider myself in any high risk group.

But I know I am closer to the exit than to the entrance, it's normal process of life.

 

It is irresponsible to pass the virus on or have it passed onto oneself and then pass it onto another through close contact. 

My choice is not harming anyone else or being harmed anyone else. 

But we are all responsible for our own actions 

Let's make a comparison to safe and unsafe casual sex

You don't know whether your partner has an STD and maybe you don't care. The next day you could pass it on to  another and so on. Or you could say that STDs are just a hoax and don't exist. 

Maybe not the best analogy but I hope you can see my point? 

[dcfc2007]

Nothing Boris could say to placate the enemy within. I thought it was a good speech and I look forward to more detail in his commons address tomorrow, and further announcements on Wednesday. He's on the side of people who want to get back to work. That's good enough for me.